Data-driven studies of how prediction markets actually move, built on the same production dataset that runs Crypto Briefing’s prediction-market desk. Every report is open: read it here or download the full PDF, no email required.
A machine-learning study of 780,494 news-market pairs finds that a prediction market’s own price geometry, not the content of the news, ranks which markets are about to move.
PDF · 548 KB · vera.cryptobriefing.com/research/words-dont-matter.pdf
Verified in the data and in preparation for release. The full reports publish here as they are finished.
Does news that clears Vera’s confirmation layer move markets more often than the news it dismisses? A census-scale test of the product’s core claim.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis, reconstructed contract by contract: how prediction markets priced a live geopolitical shock, one deadline at a time.
A taxonomy of how prediction-market moves actually behave, and why a large share fade or reverse instead of holding.
New Vera research when it publishes, and nothing else. The reports here are always free to read and download without signing up. This is only if you want a heads-up.
Methodology and provenance. Every Vera report is built on Vera’s production dataset, the same event and price pipeline that runs Crypto Briefing’s prediction-market desk. Figures are computed from the underlying market and news records, and each report states its own sample window and method in its footer.
For research and information only. Not investment advice. Prediction markets and financial markets involve significant risk. Vera is editorial market intelligence, not a trading signal, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset, contract, or position.